amanat hussain managing operational risk in financial markets

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Michael Miller B. Quantitative Financial Risk Management

A mathematical guide to measuring and managing financial risk. Our modern economy depends on financial markets. Yet financial markets continue to grow in size and complexity. As a result, the management of financial risk has never been more important. Quantitative Financial Risk Management introduces students and risk professionals to financial risk management with an emphasis on financial models and mathematical techniques. Each chapter provides numerous sample problems and end of chapter questions. The book provides clear examples of how these models are used in practice and encourages readers to think about the limits and appropriate use of financial models. Topics include: • Value at risk • Stress testing • Credit risk • Liquidity risk • Factor analysis • Expected shortfall • Copulas • Extreme value theory • Risk model backtesting • Bayesian analysis • . . . and much more

6513.72 рублей

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Philippe Jorion Financial Risk Manager Handbook. FRM Part I / Part II

The essential reference for financial risk management Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, the Financial Risk Manager Handbook is the core text for risk management training programs worldwide. Presented in a clear and consistent fashion, this completely updated Sixth Edition, mirrors recent updates to the new two-level Financial Risk Manager (FRM) exam, and is fully supported by GARP as the trusted way to prepare for the rigorous and renowned FRM certification. This valuable new edition includes an exclusive collection of interactive multiple-choice questions from recent FRM exams. Financial Risk Manager Handbook, Sixth Edition supports candidates studying for the Global Association of Risk Professional's (GARP) annual FRM exam and prepares you to assess and control risk in today's rapidly changing financial world. Authored by renowned risk management expert Philippe Jorion, with the full support of GARP, this definitive guide summarizes the core body of knowledge for financial risk managers. Offers valuable insights on managing market, credit, operational, and liquidity risk Examines the importance of structured products, futures, options, and other derivative instruments Contains new material on extreme value theory, techniques in operational risk management, and corporate risk management Financial Risk Manager Handbook is the most comprehensive guide on this subject, and will help you stay current on best practices in this evolving field. The FRM Handbook is the official reference book for GARP's FRM certification program.

11175.5 рублей

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Kenett Ron S. Operational Risk Management. A Practical Approach to Intelligent Data Analysis

Models and methods for operational risks assessment and mitigation are gaining importance in financial institutions, healthcare organizations, industry, businesses and organisations in general. This book introduces modern Operational Risk Management and describes how various data sources of different types, both numeric and semantic sources such as text can be integrated and analyzed. The book also demonstrates how Operational Risk Management is synergetic to other risk management activities such as Financial Risk Management and Safety Management. Operational Risk Management: a practical approach to intelligent data analysis provides practical and tested methodologies for combining structured and unstructured, semantic-based data, and numeric data, in Operational Risk Management (OpR) data analysis. Key Features: The book is presented in four parts: 1) Introduction to OpR Management, 2) Data for OpR Management, 3) OpR Analytics and 4) OpR Applications and its Integration with other Disciplines. Explores integration of semantic, unstructured textual data, in Operational Risk Management. Provides novel techniques for combining qualitative and quantitative information to assess risks and design mitigation strategies. Presents a comprehensive treatment of «near-misses» data and incidents in Operational Risk Management. Looks at case studies in the financial and industrial sector. Discusses application of ontology engineering to model knowledge used in Operational Risk Management. Many real life examples are presented, mostly based on the MUSING project co-funded by the EU FP6 Information Society Technology Programme. It provides a unique multidisciplinary perspective on the important and evolving topic of Operational Risk Management. The book will be useful to operational risk practitioners, risk managers in banks, hospitals and industry looking for modern approaches to risk management that combine an analysis of structured and unstructured data. The book will also benefit academics interested in research in this field, looking for techniques developed in response to real world problems.

9732.26 рублей

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Ariane Chapelle Operational Risk Management. Best Practices in the Financial Services Industry

Praise for Operational Risk Management «Ariane Chapelle is one of the world's leading teachers, thinkers and writers about operational risk. The combination of her professional experience as a practitioner in the financial services industry and her role as an advisor to regulators makes this textbook a must-read at all levels of both regulated and unregulated financial institutions.» —Amédée Prouvost, Director, Operational Risk, The World Bank «Insightful…That's the first adjective that came to mind when I read this book. Operational Risk Management: Best Practices in the Financial Services Industry offers a 360-degree perspective of operational risk, from triggers and causes to direct and indirect consequences. Besides, the book provides practical tips to set up an effective operational risk and control framework. There is not a single aspect of operational risk that is left in the shade – everything is brought to light – even the trickiest aspects such as Risk Appetite. This book is a must-read for any all-around OpRisk Manager!» —Dr. Bertrand K. Hassani, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne; Chief Solutions Officer, General Manager, INSTADEEP «The collection of Dr. Chapelle's knowledge and practitioner expertise, combined with her widely acknowledge ability to communicate complex ideas in a forthright and clear manner, makes this textbook a very valuable addition to any practitioner seeking clear, accurate, timely and insightful knowledge of key aspects of Operational Risk practice. I strongly endorse this text to practitioners seeking guidance on best practices in operational management.» —Prof. Gareth W. Peters, Chair Professor of Risk and Insurance, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, UK The Authoritative Guide to the Best Practices in Operational Risk Management Operational Risk Management offers the most current information available for putting in place an effective risk management program for a financial services firm. Comprehensive in scope, the book outlines the frameworks, tools and techniques that successful firms use to identify, assess, mitigate and monitor risk within their organisations. The different chapters present a holistic approach, which helps to clarify the relationship between the different components of a risk management framework and offers a consistent view of effective risk management. This flexible framework can be tailored to each firm based on its own practices, size and business complexity. Operational Risk Management offers the information risk managers need not only to help their organisations avoid crises, but also to safely recognise new opportunities, achieve their full potential, and reach new heights of success.

3512.3 рублей

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Pavel Shevchenko V. Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics. A Handbook of Operational Risk

A one-stop guide for the theories, applications, and statistical methodologies essential to operational risk Providing a complete overview of operational risk modeling and relevant insurance analytics, Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk offers a systematic approach that covers the wide range of topics in this area. Written by a team of leading experts in the field, the handbook presents detailed coverage of the theories, applications, and models inherent in any discussion of the fundamentals of operational risk, with a primary focus on Basel II/III regulation, modeling dependence, estimation of risk models, and modeling the data elements. Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk begins with coverage on the four data elements used in operational risk framework as well as processing risk taxonomy. The book then goes further in-depth into the key topics in operational risk measurement and insurance, for example diverse methods to estimate frequency and severity models. Finally, the book ends with sections on specific topics, such as scenario analysis; multifactor modeling; and dependence modeling. A unique companion with Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling: A Handbook of Operational Risk, the handbook also features: Discussions on internal loss data and key risk indicators, which are both fundamental for developing a risk-sensitive framework Guidelines for how operational risk can be inserted into a firm’s strategic decisions A model for stress tests of operational risk under the United States Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) program A valuable reference for financial engineers, quantitative analysts, risk managers, and large-scale consultancy groups advising banks on their internal systems, the handbook is also useful for academics teaching postgraduate courses on the methodology of operational risk.

12372.67 рублей

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Pavel Shevchenko V. Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling. A Handbook of Operational Risk

A cutting-edge guide for the theories, applications, and statistical methodologies essential to heavy tailed risk modeling Focusing on the quantitative aspects of heavy tailed loss processes in operational risk and relevant insurance analytics, Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling: A Handbook of Operational Risk presents comprehensive coverage of the latest research on the theories and applications in risk measurement and modeling techniques. Featuring a unique balance of mathematical and statistical perspectives, the handbook begins by introducing the motivation for heavy tailed risk processes in high consequence low frequency loss modeling. With a companion, Fundamental Aspects of Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics: A Handbook of Operational Risk, the book provides a complete framework for all aspects of operational risk management and includes: Clear coverage on advanced topics such as splice loss models, extreme value theory, heavy tailed closed form loss distributional approach models, flexible heavy tailed risk models, risk measures, and higher order asymptotic approximations of risk measures for capital estimation An exploration of the characterization and estimation of risk and insurance modelling, which includes sub-exponential models, alpha-stable models, and tempered alpha stable models An extended discussion of the core concepts of risk measurement and capital estimation as well as the details on numerical approaches to evaluation of heavy tailed loss process model capital estimates Numerous detailed examples of real-world methods and practices of operational risk modeling used by both financial and non-financial institutions Advances in Heavy Tailed Risk Modeling: A Handbook of Operational Risk is an excellent reference for risk management practitioners, quantitative analysts, financial engineers, and risk managers. The book is also a useful handbook for graduate-level courses on heavy tailed processes, advanced risk management, and actuarial science.

11997.76 рублей

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Philippa Girling X. Operational Risk Management. A Complete Guide to a Successful Operational Risk Framework

A best practices guide to all of the elements of an effective operational risk framework While many organizations know how important operational risks are, they still continue to struggle with the best ways to identify and manage them. Organizations of all sizes and in all industries need best practices for identifying and managing key operational risks, if they intend on exceling in today's dynamic environment. Operational Risk Management fills this need by providing both the new and experienced operational risk professional with all of the tools and best practices needed to implement a successful operational risk framework. It also provides real-life examples of successful methods and tools you can use while facing the cultural challenges that are prevalent in this field. Contains informative post-mortems on some of the most notorious operational risk events of our time Explores the future of operational risk in the current regulatory environment Written by a recognized global expert on operational risk An effective operational risk framework is essential for today's organizations. This book will put you in a better position to develop one and use it to identify, assess, control, and mitigate any potential risks of this nature.

6705.3 рублей

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Philippe Jorion Financial Risk Manager Handbook

The essential reference for financial risk management Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, the Financial Risk Manager Handbook is the core text for risk management training programs worldwide. Presented in a clear and consistent fashion, this completely updated Fifth Edition-which comes with an interactive CD-ROM containing hundreds of multiple-choice questions from previous FRM exams-is one of the best ways to prepare for the Financial Risk Manager (FRM) exam. Financial Risk Manager Handbook, Fifth Edition supports candidates studying for the Global Association of Risk Professional's (GARP) annual FRM exam and prepares you to assess and control risk in today's rapidly changing financial world. Authored by renowned risk management expert Philippe Jorion-with the full support of GARP-this definitive guide summarizes the core body of knowledge for financial risk managers. Offers valuable insights on managing market, credit, operational, and liquidity risk Examines the importance of structured products, futures, options, and other derivative instruments Identifies regulatory and legal issues Addresses investment management and hedge fund risk Financial Risk Manager Handbook is the most comprehensive guide on this subject, and will help you stay current on best practices in this evolving field. The FRM Handbook is the official reference book for GARP's FRM® certification program. Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file.

13410.6 рублей

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Charles Tapiero S. Risk Finance and Asset Pricing. Value, Measurements, and Markets

A comprehensive guide to financial engineering that stresses real-world applications Financial engineering expert Charles S. Tapiero has his finger on the pulse of shifts coming to financial engineering and its applications. With an eye toward the future, he has crafted a comprehensive and accessible book for practitioners and students of Financial Engineering that emphasizes an intuitive approach to financial and quantitative foundations in financial and risk engineering. The book covers the theory from a practitioner perspective and applies it to a variety of real-world problems. Examines the cornerstone of the explosive growth in markets worldwide Presents important financial engineering techniques to price, hedge, and manage risks in general Author heads the largest financial engineering program in the world Author Charles Tapiero wrote the seminal work Risk and Financial Management.

6066.7 рублей

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Aron Gottesman Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets

An accessible and detailed overview of the risks posed by financial institutions Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets offers an accessible yet detailed overview of the risks to financial stability posed by financial institutions designated as systemically important. The types of firms covered are primarily systemically important banks, non-banks, and financial market utilities such as central counterparties. Written by Aron Gottesman and Michael Leibrock, experts on the topic of systemic risk, this vital resource puts the spotlight on coherency, practitioner relevance, conceptual explanations, and practical exposition. Step by step, the authors explore the specific regulations enacted before and after the credit crisis of 2007-2009 to promote financial stability. The text also examines the criteria used by financial regulators to designate firms as systemically important. The quantitative and qualitative methods to measure the ongoing risks posed by systemically important financial institutions are surveyed. A review of the regulations that identify systemically important financial institutions The tools to use to detect early warning indications of default A review of historical systemic events their common causes Techniques to measure interconnectedness Approaches for ranking the order the institutions which pose the greatest degree of default risk to the industry Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets offers a must-have guide to the fundamentals of systemic risk and the key critical policies that work to reduce systemic risk and promoting financial stability.

4789.5 рублей

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Allan Malz M. Financial Risk Management. Models, History, and Institutions

Financial risk has become a focus of financial and nonfinancial firms, individuals, and policy makers. But the study of risk remains a relatively new discipline in finance and continues to be refined. The financial market crisis that began in 2007 has highlighted the challenges of managing financial risk. Now, in Financial Risk Management, author Allan Malz addresses the essential issues surrounding this discipline, sharing his extensive career experiences as a risk researcher, risk manager, and central banker. The book includes standard risk measurement models as well as alternative models that address options, structured credit risks, and the real-world complexities or risk modeling, and provides the institutional and historical background on financial innovation, liquidity, leverage, and financial crises that is crucial to practitioners and students of finance for understanding the world today. Financial Risk Management is equally suitable for firm risk managers, economists, and policy makers seeking grounding in the subject. This timely guide skillfully surveys the landscape of financial risk and the financial developments of recent decades that culminated in the crisis. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the different types of financial risk we face, as well as the techniques used to measure and manage them. Topics covered include: Market risk, from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to risk models for options Credit risk, from portfolio credit risk to structured credit products Model risk and validation Risk capital and stress testing Liquidity risk, leverage, systemic risk, and the forms they take Financial crises, historical and current, their causes and characteristics Financial regulation and its evolution in the wake of the global crisis And much more Combining the more model-oriented approach of risk management-as it has evolved over the past two decades-with an economist's approach to the same issues, Financial Risk Management is the essential guide to the subject for today's complex world.

6066.7 рублей

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Отсутствует Operational Risk Management

A practical guide to identifying, analyzing and tackling operational risk in banks and financial institutions Created for banking and finance professionals with a desire to expand their management skill set, this book focuses on operational risk and operational risk events, as distinct from other types of functional risks. It was written by the experts at the world-renowned Hong Kong Institute of Bankers, an organization dedicated to providing the international banking community with education and training. Schools you in techniques for analyzing the operational risk exposure of banking institutions and assessing how operational risk impacts on other types of risk Provides expert guidance on how to design, plan and implement systems for operational risk management and quality control Describes a comprehensive approach to operational risk management that includes data collection, modeling and an overall risk management structure Shows you how to develop operational risk management solutions to help your company minimize losses without negatively impacting its ability to generate gains Offers expert guidance on various regulatory frameworks and how the latest Basel II and Basel III requirements impact a bank's operational risk management strategy and framework

4023.18 рублей

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Clive Corcoran M. Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets. Wealth Management in Today's Macro Risk On / Risk Off Financial Environment

The dramatic and well chronicled crisis of 2007/8 marked a watershed moment for all stakeholders in global capital markets. In the aftermath, financial markets have become even more tightly coupled as correlations in returns across multiple asset classes have been at historically elevated levels. Investors and fund managers are, to a much larger degree than previously and often much more than they realize, subject to the risk of severe wealth destruction. The ultimate hazard, which is not adequately characterized by the widely touted notion of tail risk, is the systemic risk which arises when liquidity in markets completely evaporates. Not only did this happen in the second half of 2008, but it has been repeated episodically since then – most notably in May 2010, in an incident known as the Flash Crash, and in the fall of 2011 when correlations were at historically elevated levels. Conventional asset allocation tools and techniques have failed to keep apace with the changing financial landscape which has emerged since 2008. In addition to the preponderance of algorithmic trading and the associated changes in the liquidity characteristics of financial markets, a new paradigm of risk on/risk off asset allocation has emerged. Risk on/risk off is a widely adopted style of trading and macro allocation strategy where positions are taken in several closely aligned asset classes depending on the prevailing sentiment or appetite for risk. The consequences of the day to day (and intraday) switching between either a risk on or risk off tactical strategies poses significant new challenges to investors who are still making investment decisions with outmoded notions from traditional asset allocation theory. How can one cushion the impact of systemically threatening events when the ability to exit financial instruments becomes almost non existent? How can one trust the integrity of financial models and orthodox macro financial theory which have become increasingly discredited? Can central bankers be relied upon to become the counter-parties of last resort and provide a safety net under the financial system? These vital questions, and many others, need to be addressed by everyone who has a stake in modern financial markets, and they are addressed in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets. Proper functioning markets require fractiousness or divided opinion, and this needs to be lubricated by communications from central bankers, economic forecasters, corporate executives and so on. As long as such messages and market conditions remain ambiguous, providing asymmetric information to different market players, then the conditions are present to enable systemic liquidity to be preserved. Seen in this context the prevailing paradigm of bipolar risk on/risk off asset allocations is both a prerequisite to liquid markets, and also paradoxically, when one side of the polarity becomes too extreme, a major source of systemic instability. Should such polarities become critically unbalanced, and should the signals received by market players become symmetrically disadvantageous as they were in the fall of 2008, then an even more substantial systemic liquidity crisis than that seen in those troubled times is a dangerous possibility. Apart from the practical risk management tools and tactics that are recommended in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets, there is a provocative and cogent narrative to provide anxious and perplexed investors with a coherent explanation of the post GFC financial environment, and which should assist them in navigating the choppy waters ahead.

5491.96 рублей

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Richard Apostolik Foundations of Financial Risk. An Overview of Financial Risk and Risk-based Financial Regulation

Gain a deeper understanding of the issues surrounding financial risk and regulation Foundations of Financial Risk details the various risks, regulations, and supervisory requirements institutions face in today's economic and regulatory environment. Written by the experts at the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), this book represents an update to GARP's original publication, Foundations of Banking Risk. You'll learn the terminology and basic concepts surrounding global financial risk and regulation, and develop an understanding of the methods used to measure and manage market, credit, and operational risk. Coverage includes traded market risk and regulation, treasury risk and regulation, and much more, including brand new coverage of risk management for insurance companies. Clear explanations, focused discussion, and comprehensive relevancy make this book an ideal resource for an introduction to risk management. The textbook provides an understanding of risk management methodologies, governance structures for risk management in financial institutions and the regulatory requirements dictated by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. It provides thorough coverage of the issues surrounding financial risk, giving you a solid knowledgebase and a practical, applicable understanding. Understand risk measurement and management Learn how minimum capital requirements are regulated Explore all aspects of financial institution regulation and disclosure Master the terminology of global risk and regulation Financial institutions and supervisors around the world are increasingly recognizing how vital sound risk management practices are to both individual firms and the capital markets system as a whole. Savvy professionals recognize the need for authoritative and comprehensive training, and Foundations of Financial Risk delivers with expert-led education for those new to risk management.

6066.7 рублей

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William Mallios S. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets. Adaptive Drift Modeling

A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.

8889.31 рублей

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Global Association of Risk Professionals Foundations of Energy Risk Management. An Overview of the Energy Sector and Its Physical and Financial Markets

GARP's Fundamentals of Energy Risk Management introduces investors to the basic components and some of the basic terminology used in the energy industry. It covers the commodity cycle, energy use and sources, and various risk types, various energy products and the markets where energy is traded. It also introduces certain risk management fundamentals and real option thinking. The book is GARP's required text used by risk professionals looking to obtain their Certificate in Energy Risk Management.

7280.04 рублей

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Francois Longin Extreme Events in Finance. A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and its Applications

A guide to the growing importance of extreme value risk theory, methods, and applications in the financial sector Presenting a uniquely accessible guide, Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications features a combination of the theory, methods, and applications of extreme value theory (EVT) in finance and a practical understanding of market behavior including both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. Beginning with a fascinating history of EVTs and financial modeling, the handbook introduces the historical implications that resulted in the applications and then clearly examines the fundamental results of EVT in finance. After dealing with these theoretical results, the handbook focuses on the EVT methods critical for data analysis. Finally, the handbook features the practical applications and techniques and how these can be implemented in financial markets. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications includes: • Over 40 contributions from international experts in the areas of finance, statistics, economics, business, insurance, and risk management • Topical discussions on univariate and multivariate case extremes as well as regulation in financial markets • Extensive references in order to provide readers with resources for further study • Discussions on using R packages to compute the value of risk and related quantities The book is a valuable reference for practitioners in financial markets such as financial institutions, investment funds, and corporate treasuries, financial engineers, quantitative analysts, regulators, risk managers, large-scale consultancy groups, and insurers. Extreme Events in Finance: A Handbook of Extreme Value Theory and Its Applications is also a useful textbook for postgraduate courses on the methodology of EVTs in finance. François Longin, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Finance at ESSEC Business School, France. He has been working on the applications of extreme value theory to financial markets for many years, and his research has been applied by financial institutions in the risk management area including market, credit, and operational risks. His research works can be found in scientific journals such as The Journal of Finance. Dr. Longin is currently a financial consultant with expertise covering risk management for financial institutions and portfolio management for asset management firms.

11247.23 рублей

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James Chen Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets

Comprehensive, accessible guide to technical analysis and market trading strategies Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets is an all-encompassing handbook on navigating the financial markets successfully using technical analysis. Clearly written, easy-to-understand, and straightforward, this guide focuses on the key information needed by traders and investors to take on any financial market effectively. Easy-to-use, at-your-fingertips information on using technical analysis to trade all major financial markets Explains how to navigate the markets successfully, including the top techniques for entries, exits, and risk management Straightforward descriptions of proven technical trading methods and strategies Filled with technical analysis insights, charts, and examples With financial markets in «roller coaster» mode, technical analysis offers a unique advantage for managing risk and finding high-probability trading opportunities. Packed with insightful tips and guidance, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets provides proven trading strategies from one of today's top technical strategists.

2870.99 рублей

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The dramatic and well chronicled crisis of 2007/8 marked a watershed moment for all stakeholders in global capital markets. In the aftermath, financial markets have become even more tightly coupled as correlations in returns across multiple asset classes have been at historically elevated levels. Investors and fund managers are, to a much larger degree than previously and often much more than they realize, subject to the risk of severe wealth destruction. The ultimate hazard, which is not adequately characterized by the widely touted notion of tail risk, is the systemic risk which arises when liquidity in markets completely evaporates. Not only did this happen in the second half of 2008, but it has been repeated episodically since then – most notably in May 2010, in an incident known as the Flash Crash, and in the fall of 2011 when correlations were at historically elevated levels. Conventional asset allocation tools and techniques have failed to keep apace with the changing financial landscape which has emerged since 2008. In addition to the preponderance of algorithmic trading and the associated changes in the liquidity characteristics of financial markets, a new paradigm of risk on/risk off asset allocation has emerged. Risk on/risk off is a widely adopted style of trading and macro allocation strategy where positions are taken in several closely aligned asset classes depending on the prevailing sentiment or appetite for risk. The consequences of the day to day (and intraday) switching between either a risk on or risk off tactical strategies poses significant new challenges to investors who are still making investment decisions with outmoded notions from traditional asset allocation theory. How can one cushion the impact of systemically threatening events when the ability to exit financial instruments becomes almost non existent? How can one trust the integrity of financial models and orthodox macro financial theory which have become increasingly discredited? Can central bankers be relied upon to become the counter-parties of last resort and provide a safety net under the financial system? These vital questions, and many others, need to be addressed by everyone who has a stake in modern financial markets, and they are addressed in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets. Proper functioning markets require fractiousness or divided opinion, and this needs to be lubricated by communications from central bankers, economic forecasters, corporate executives and so on. As long as such messages and market conditions remain ambiguous, providing asymmetric information to different market players, then the conditions are present to enable systemic liquidity to be preserved. Seen in this context the prevailing paradigm of bipolar risk on/risk off asset allocations is both a prerequisite to liquid markets, and also paradoxically, when one side of the polarity becomes too extreme, a major source of systemic instability. Should such polarities become critically unbalanced, and should the signals received by market players become symmetrically disadvantageous as they were in the fall of 2008, then an even more substantial systemic liquidity crisis than that seen in those troubled times is a dangerous possibility. Apart from the practical risk management tools and tactics that are recommended in Systemic Liquidity Risk and Bipolar Markets, there is a provocative and cogent narrative to provide anxious and perplexed investors with a coherent explanation of the post GFC financial environment, and which should assist them in navigating the choppy waters ahead.

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